Donald Trump’s odd of winning the upcoming presidential election on November 5 has jumped to 66.3%, according to a top betting market called Polymarket, a crypto trading platform. Betfair Exchange, the biggest U.K. peer-to-peer betting platform, predicts that Trump was on the brink of “likely win”. In fact, bettors in exchanges around the world have the odds in favour of Trump.

 

Trump’s probability of winning began rising in the past two weeks as Kamala Harris’ polling declined in battleground states. Polymarket, which saw a mysterious “French whale” betting a whopping US$45 million on a Trump win, predicts the former POTUS would win three battleground states – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which have 19, 10 and 15 electoral votes respectively.

 

They are three out of seven states that were won by less than three percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Swing states, also known as battleground states, are states that could “swing” to either Democratic or Republican candidates depending on the election. Besides Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the other four include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

North Carolina has only voted Democratic once in the last 44 years (in 2008). Surprisingly, Trump’s lead was highest in Michigan – his worst of all swing states from 2020. Trump also leads Arizona and Georgia by 1.8 points and 2.5 points respectively, the same two states he lost narrowly in 2020 to Joe Biden. Even Nevada looks like a bonus for Trump this round.

 

According to a 2004 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, the clear betting favourite in the month before the election has only lost twice in 1916 and 1948. But it isn’t foolproof as the betting markets also failed to predict Trump’s win in 2016. Of course, the probability of winning also depends on the performance – or screw-up – of the candidate every day.

 

That explains why Trump worked at a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, serving French fries to customers in a brilliant marketing stunt to connect with the working class voters, as well as trolling and bashing his opponent Kamala Harris over her claim of a summer job at the fast-food chain. This has sent the Democrats and Harris into panic mode, so much so Kamala had to take one day to cool off.

The 2024 Presidential Election is perhaps the most exciting ever, not because the world might get the first African American woman president who giggles most of the time, but because we haven’t had a former president from Republican running again. Grover Cleveland, a Democrat, is the only former president who has ever come back after being defeated for re-election to win a second non-consecutive term (1893-1897).

 

Therefore, Donald Trump will create history if he wins. And the U.S. hasn’t had a campaign with two assassination attempts. Crucially, the country hasn’t had an election where a candidate was switched out just two months before the Election Day. If Trump wins, it’s not because his MAGA (Make America Great Again) works like a charm, but rather because the Democrats keep screwing up.

 

During a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in New York, an invited comedian – Tony Hinchcliffe – mocked and insulted Puerto Rican when he said – “There’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it’s called Puerto Rico“. He also joked that Latinos “love making babies” and that they do not “pull out”, seen as a racist remark.

Americans of Puerto Rican origin or ancestry are an important demographic in some swing states that will decide the winner of the election, including Pennsylvania, which Democrats won by a narrow margin of 1.17% – about 82,000 votes – in 2020. Across Pennsylvania, about 600,000 eligible voters are Latino, and more than 470,000 of them are Puerto Ricans.

 

Hence, the joke describing Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage” could come back to haunt the Republicans and Trump. Although the Trump campaign was quick to distance itself, saying the remark “does not reflect the views” of Trump or his campaign, the damage is done. The Harris snapped the opportunity, with Kamala pointing to the comment as proof that Trump is “fanning the fuel trying to divide” Americans.

 

Even some of Trump supporters were not amused with the disgusting jokes. Just when you thought the ex-president campaign has scored its own goal, the man who came to the rescue was none other than President Joe Biden. The Harris campaign was speechless when Biden said during a Zoom call – “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters”.

After realizing his blunder, Sleepy Joe tried to spin and twist his screw-up, claiming that he was referring to comedian Hinchcliffe. But Trump and other Republicans seized the opportunity and accused him of labelling Republican supporters – numbering 74 million Americans (who had voted for Trump in 2020) – as “garbage”. But why is this so important and could be the game changer?

 

That’s because Hillary Clinton, the favourite to become the first woman president in the 2016 Presidential Election, had similarly insulted Americans and lost spectacularly. In her 2017 book – “What Happened” – Clinton said that her comments generalizing half of Trump’s supporters as a “basket of deplorables” were a factor in her electoral loss, calling it a “political gift” for Trump.

 

And Clinton was leading the race up until the election, who at one time had a 12-point lead over Trump. In fact, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. For example, Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton University and co-founder of the blog Princeton Election Consortium, was so confident that he made a bet to eat an insect if Trump won more than 240 electoral votes.

When Trump won with 304 votes compared to 227 votes for Hillary Clinton, the idiot had to eat a cricket live on CNN. This time, it is a razor-tight contest between Harris and Trump. It didn’t help that former president Barack Obama has “berated, rebuked and scolded black men” for not supporting Kamala Harris, even accused Black men of “coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses” for not turning out in support of Harris.

 

Between “deplorable” and “garbage”, the answer is obvious which is worse. The Trump campaign is trumpeting the message that while the ex-president supports Latinos, Black voters, union workers, angel moms, law enforcement officers, border patrol agents, and Americans of all faiths, Harris and Democrats hate Trump so much that they despise the tens of millions of Americans who support him.

 

It doesn’t matter what Biden really meant. Perception is everything, and the president – either ignorantly or deliberately – has given Harris a political mess whilst rescuing Trump with a way out of the backlash from Puerto Rican. A Trump fundraising email reads – “First, Hillary called you a DEPLORABLE! THEN they called you a FASCIST! And moments ago Kamala’s boss Biden called you GARBAGE!”

 

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October 30th, 2024 by financetwitter

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