Almost one-fifth of Florida’s gas stations were out of fuel by Tuesday afternoon, and the streets are empty as people scramble to leave – nearly two weeks after the destruction as a result of Hurricane Helene. The Hurricane Milton, projected to hit the south-west coast of Florida by Wednesday evening local time, has just been upgraded to Category 5 as it restrengthened in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

While Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph (225km/h) and was at its peak strength when it made landfall, Hurricane Milton would be even stronger with sustained winds around 180mph (290km/h) – a top rated Category 5 hurricane. Even when Milton weakens slightly before landfall, its wind speeds will be in excess of 130mph (210km/h).

 

The only good news is Hurricane Milton will move quickly across Florida resulting in up to 18in (460mm) of rain, compared to Helene’s massive 30.78in (782mm) rainfall, leading to catastrophic flooding and landslides and caused more than 200 deaths. Still, Milton is capable of causing severe flooding. While storm surge brought by Helene was huge at 7.8ft (2.4m), Milton’s storm surge would be 10-15ft (3-5m).

A storm surge is an abnormal rise in sea level caused by a storm. Tropical cyclones such as hurricanes do not just bring strong winds and heavy rain. It is the storm surge brought by a hurricane that produces the most damage and threat to life through extensive coastal flooding. Therefore, storm surges could overwhelm houses as it pushes water inland.

 

If you still have no idea how badass Milton is, Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall near New Orleans in August 2005, was just a Category 3. However, Katrina became a more powerful Category 5 hurricane in the hours before landfall – the strongest and most destructive hurricane to hit the United States, killing around 1,300 people.

 

The Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, has warned residents intending to leave that they were almost out of time – “If you’re gonna get out, get out now”. The federal emergency management agency (FEMA) says Hurricane Milton is going to be like nothing Florida has ever seen before. The mayor of Tampa, Jane Castor, warned – “If you choose to stay, you are going to die,”

Tampa Bay region, home to more than 3 million people, has not had a direct hit by a major hurricane since 1921, making it even more deadly as mentality of many in Florida has been to ignore evacuation warnings – till it’s too late. Hurricane damage modellers have for years warned that the Tampa Bay area is particularly vulnerable to rising seas caused by storm surges, due to its wide and shallow seabed.

 

Even President Joe Biden had to join the bandwagon, warning that Hurricane Milton could be one of the worst storms in the country for 100 years and advised residents to leave immediately as “a matter of life and death”. It was so bad that the president cancelled a trip to Angola and Germany. But even if people wanted to leave, there were problems of traffic jams and long queues at fuel stations. 

 

Almost all of Florida’s west coast was under a hurricane warning, with more than a million people told to evacuate, fleeing potentially catastrophic damage and power outages that could last for days. So, even if you survive Milton, there won’t be any electricity or clean water, not to mention fears that mounds of building rubble left in Helene could turn into dangerous debris if caught up in Milton’s floods and winds.

Equally frustrated was Sheriff Chad Chronister of the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office, who said 911 callers may not get help – “They’re on their own, you know. I don’t know why you’re gambling with your life or the life of your loved one, but realize this storm is going to be different. When these wind shear and wind speeds reach a certain speed, I can’t imagine a feeling when someone calls for help and there’s no one coming.”

 

Even though the state government had deployed more than 300 dump trucks that had removed 1,300 loads of debris, which was quite amazing, the remaining discarded furniture, appliances and debris from Hurricane Helene will become projectiles or weapons when Milton arrives. Heck, one resident said he had seen bull sharks swimming in the flooded streets after Helene.

 

Orlando International Airport, as well as Tampa International Airport, St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport and Sarasota Bradenton International Airport have ceased commercial operations. That has left many who visited Disney World stranded in the Orlando area. The Disney vacations have turned into an unexpected adventure after the unexpected airport closures.

Hurricane Milton may result in a US$60 billion loss for the global insurance industry, creating a surge in 2025 reinsurance prices which could boost some insurance companies’ shares. But Wells Fargo estimates could cause up to US$100 billion in losses. The total flood and wind losses due to Helene, meanwhile, are estimated between US$30.5 billion and US$47.5 billion.

 

Hurricane Katrina caused US$41 billion in insured loss in 2005, which equivalent to roughly US$54 billion today. As of 2023, Katrina remained the most expensive insured loss event since 1900. Adjusted for inflation, economic losses from Katrina, however, come to approximately US$160 billion with the insurance industry recording the biggest loss in history.

 

Before Helene hit, residents stubbornly staying behind were encouraged to write their name and social security numbers on their bodies for easier post-mortem identification. “If you are in a single story home that is hit by a 15ft storm surge, which means that water comes in immediately, there’s nowhere to go. So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in” – said the mayor of Tampa, Jane Castor.

 

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October 9th, 2024 by financetwitter

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