On one hand, Iran has mocked and laughed at Israel’s weak military retaliation against its 180 ballistic missile attack on October 1. On the other hand, however, Tehran has strongly condemned Tel Aviv’s attack on their military targets on Saturday (October 26). If indeed Israel’s attack had inflicted limited damage, as claimed by Iran, should not Tehran celebrate instead of being angry?

 

Israel, which for the first time publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran, had targeted only military facilities in its attack. The initial expectation that the Jews state would strike Iranian’s nuclear facilities and crude oil industry has been shelved due to pro-Iranian President Joe Biden’s warning not to do so. With election less than 2 weeks away, Biden cannot afford a sudden oil price hike.

 

Under the cover of darkness, over 100 planes were involved in the attack on Iran on early Saturday morning, including the cutting-edge F-35. Deployed in three waves of precision strikes, the first round of attack involved striking radar targets in Syria to “blind” Iran’s capabilities, followed with sonic booms near the Jordanian border and then across Iraq, before continuing the 2,000 kilometres journey to target specific military installations deep inside Iran.

The overnight airstrikes, starting around 2 am on Saturday, quickly escalated into an offensive targeting capital city Tehran and Karaj, and other strategic location involving three provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam. After neutralizing Syrian threat, the Israeli warplanes hit the Russian-made S-300 air defence of Imam Khomeini International Airport near Tehran.

 

The S-300 was delivered to Iran in 2016 in a US$800 million deal signed between the two states in 2007. The surface-to-air missile system can counter multiple aircraft at a range of 195 kilometres and ballistic missiles at a range of up to 50 kilometres. Iran has also developed its own Bavar-373 defence system, described as a competitor to S-300 and even more superior after an upgrade in 2022.

 

At least three Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) missile bases were targeted in the strikes. In the second wave, Israeli drones targeted the secretive Parchin military base on the outskirts of Tehran. Iranians were greeted with the sound of explosions that rattled their windows and shook their homes in the predawn hours, where at least seven explosions in and around Tehran were heard.

After the “Days of Repentance” operation was completed on Saturday morning, which lasted four hours, the Israel Defense Forces announced it had hit missile and drone manufacturing sites and aerial defences in several areas in Iran. Like Iranian’s earlier warning to Israel not to respond to its 180 missile strikes, Israeli too has now warned Tehran not to retaliate after Saturday’s strike.

 

The strikes were so precise that by mid-morning, life in Tehran looked normal with children were in school and adults had gone to work. In a state television broadcast titled “An Ordinary Day in Tehran,” reporters cheerfully proclaimed that all was well. Of course, the Iranian government quickly snatched the opportunity to mock Israel’s weak operation.

 

But unlike Tehran’s 180 missile attacks on October 1 which did not kill any Israeli except one Palestinian, Iran admits that four soldiers were killed in the Saturday morning’s Israeli airstrikes. The Associated Press, however, said 10 members of Iran’s national police force have been killed 1,200 kilometres southeast of Tehran. The ball now is in Iran’s court, whether to retaliate or let it go.

Still, even Washington has to wait for the dust to settle to see if Israel’s targets were limited to military targets or went beyond that to include facilities linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. After weeks of calculations, Israel appears to have heeded Washington’s warnings for fear that like Tehran cheerleader Biden, Kamala Harris could emerge victorious in the November Presidential Election.

 

In exchange for not targeting Iranian oil and nuclear facilities, Israel has been gifted with THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system) to protect the country in case of an Iranian reaction to Israel’s latest retaliation. The U.S. has also sent an advanced team of 100 troops to operate the system, which is considered a complementary system to the Patriot system but can defend a wider area – 150-200 kilometres (93-124 miles).

 

So far, the IDF said it hit around 20 targets, including missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air-missiles and other military sites. This could be a preparation to attack Iran’s most sensitive targets such as oil infrastructure and nuclear facilities if Tehran responds. While Netanyahu had decided to give a face to Biden this time, it will be hard for the U.S. to tell Israel not to strike those high profile targets next time.

But the fact that despite rhetoric that the IRGC has announced that it is a criminal offense to send “images or news” related to the attack to outlets that it deems “Israel-affiliated” or “hostile”, not to mention that Tehran has played down the damage whilst avoided mentioning about vengeance, suggests that Iran has no appetite to escalate the conflict. It can brag that its air defences had successfully shot down all Israeli planes and missiles, causing “limited damage”.

 

Strategically, Netanyahu, who has won several rounds of victories – the crippling of Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organizations, the ingenious pager explosive operation and the elimination of top leaders like Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Hasrallah and Yahya Sinwar – prefers to focus on Gaza and Lebanon than to escalate the war into Iran. Likewise, Iranian Mullahs too are terrified of being killed and the fear of the return of Donald Trump.

 

Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that “Israel now has broader aerial freedom of operation in Iran” – suggesting that the Iranian defence has been severely degraded or weakened that it would be struggling to defend against future attacks. Israel can take the win, while at the same time Iran can hoodwink its own people that the Jews airstrikes were so ineffective that it was not worth retaliate.

The Jews state has again shown its military precision and capabilities are superior to Iran’s. To allow Tehran save face and a chance not to escalate any further, there was no mass casualties because Israel had notified the U.S., who in turn notified Iran, of the incoming airstrikes. Israeli officials said privately that Saturday’s operation had been tailored to deliver a deterrent blow to Iran.

 

However, there was clearly distrust between Biden administration and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after a major security breach when U.S. intelligence documents about Israel’s preparations for an attack on Iran were published by a Telegram account affiliated with Iran. The leak was suspected to be a deliberate attempt by Biden to disrupt the Israeli operation.

 

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October 26th, 2024 by financetwitter

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